<Ojibwe Lifeway: Wild Rice Harvesting (“dagwaagin”-fall)

INVESTIGATE THE SCIENCE

Warming temperatures can stress out manoomin. Now that you have learned about the importance of wild rice to the Lake Superior Ojibwe and explored Evidence that you can see, feel, or experience based on what you observe around you. place-based evidence of how climate change is affecting manoomin, it is time investigate what scientific ecological research is telling us about how the climate is changing. How could these changes affect the sustainability of manoomin? How could these changes affect cultural practices and activities you enjoy?  Use the Climate Change Toolkit to investigate the science! Use the Investigate the Science Activity Guide to focus your explorations.

CLIMATE CHANGE TOOLKIT

Browse this toolkit to find maps showing historic and projected climate trends for key environment variables affecting the sustainability of manoomin. Choose the geographical area you are interested in investigating and explore the climate change maps and tools.
Wisconsin

Wisconsin’s Changing Climate-Historic Trends and Future Projections

Wisconsin’s Changing Climate-Historic Trends and Future Projections
Wisconsin’s Changing Climate-Historic Trends and Future Projections

Use this website to investigate how Wisconsin's climate has changed based on historic climate data from 1950 -2024 and how it is expected to change by mid-century (2041-2060). Color-coded maps show how different climate variables are changing across Wisconsin.


Start by establishing a "baseline" for your investigation based on the “historic trends” for each climate variable (temperature, precipitation, extreme rainfall, and drought). Next compare at the “future projections” for each of the climate variable.

How has Wisconsin’s climate changed in the past?

CLUE:  From 1950-2024, the average annual temperature in Wisconsin warmed about 3°F.  Winter temperatures have risen most significantly. Summer and autumn temperatures in Wisconsin have changed the least.

Precipitation patterns have also changed. Wisconsin has become wetter – average precipitation has increased 17 percent (about 5 inches) since 1950.

Most of the increase has been concentrated in southern and western Wisconsin. With warming winter temperatures, more winter precipitation is expected to fall as rain, rather than snow. Explore more historic Wisconsin climate trends and seasonal trends here
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What's the Future for Wisconsin's Climate?

What's the Future for Wisconsin's Climate?
What's the Future for Wisconsin's Climate?
The Wisconsin Climate Time Traveler Mapping Tool  (also called "Dynamic Statistical Downscaling") lets you manipulate climate change variables, time periods, and a variety of climate “scenarios” to investigate climate impacts under these climate futures:
  • A2 Scenario- This model is characterized by a future with intensive fossil fuel use and high carbon emissions, higher than today’s rate.
  • A1B Scenario- This model uses a middle level rate of fossil fuel use where future carbon emissions remain similar to what we are experiencing today.
  • B1 Scenario- This model is characterized by a future with lower fossil fuel use and lower carbon emissions than today’s rates. 
Using this tool, you can explore how climate trends may affect specific climate variables such as temperature and precipitation under each climate scenario.
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Ceded Territory of the lake superior ojibwe

INVESTIGATE CEDED TERRITORY CLIMATE CHANGE

The maps in this section were created by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).
Open this section of the Climate Change Toolkit to discover how climate may be changing within the Ceded territories are lands transferred from tribes to the federal covernment by treaty.Ceded Territory of the Lake Superior Ojibwe and Upper Great Lakes.

Investigate maps that show historic climate trends that have been already been documented. Discover how climate variables like temperature and precipitation are projected to change. All climate projection maps are based on the A1B scenario which projects a climate future where the rate of fossil fuel use and carbon emissions remain similar to what we are experiencing today.

By Treaty with the US government, the Ojibwe people retain rights to hunt, fish, and gather in the Ceded Territory. Sustainability of plant and animals are important to maintaining Treaty Rights and Ojibwe cultural practices.

How could climate change affect the sustainability of species that are essential to supporting Treaty Rights and Ojibwe cultural practices? How could these changes in climate affect the cultural practices you enjoy, or people and economies?

TIP: Tip on using NASA Climate Maps
Each NASA climate map uses a different range of variables and colors to show the range of change. Read each map legend carefully to understand the range of variables that each color represents.

NASA historic climate maps and climate project maps cover slightly different time periods than other maps in the toolkit. NASA maps are based on the A2 climate scenario which projects a moderate rate of C02 increase.

HISTORIC CHANGE IN ANNUAL MEAN DAILY TEMPERATURE

PROJECTED CHANGES IN MEAN ANNUAL TEMPERTURE AVERAGE (TAVG)

Average annual mean temperatures across the Ceded Territory are expected to increase between 3-4° F by 2045. Warming is expected throughout the region, but the greatest increase in northern Wisconsin and Minnesota.

Look at the seasonal maps. Across the region, the warming is expected across all seasons, but is projected to be most significant during summer, fall and winter seasons.

Warmer winters mean more precipitation falling as rain or ice rather than snow, and less ice cover on lakes.

How would warming temperatures affect the sustainability of species and cultural activities that depend on cool temperate summers and cold snowy winters?

HISTORIC CHANGE IN ANNUAL PRECIPITATION (1980-2010)

HISTORIC CHANGE IN ANNUAL PRECIPITATION

Recorded trends in precipitation (falling as rain and snow) varied greatly across the Ceded Territory. The northern and western parts of the region tended to be drier, with some counties experiencing a decrease of as much as 6.5-inches in annual precipitation during this period.

Other counties in the south and east received as much as 8- inches more annual precipitation over the same time. Increased precipitation can saturate soils leading to flooding.

Drought is closely tied to precipitation and temperature. Compare this map with the Historic Annual Temperature seasonal maps. Which areas experienced higher temperatures and lower precipitation leading to drought conditions?

CEDED TERRITORY CLIMATE CHANGE TIME TRAVELER

What’s the Ceded Territory’s Climate Future?
Climate Change Projections (1995-2045)

PROJECTED CHANGES IN MEAN ANNUAL TEMPERTURE AVERAGE (TAVG)

Average annual mean temperatures across the Ceded Territory are expected to increase between 3-4° F by 2045. Warming is expected throughout the region, but the greatest increase in northern Wisconsin and Minnesota.

Look at the seasonal maps. Across the region, the warming is expected across all seasons, but is projected to be most significant during summer, fall and winter seasons.

Warmer winters mean more precipitation falling as rain or ice rather than snow, and less ice cover on lakes.

How would warming temperatures affect the sustainability of species and cultural activities that depend on cool temperate summers and cold snowy winters?
PROJECTED CHANGE IN FREQUENCY OF VERY HOT DAYS

By 2045, the frequency of very hot days above 90° F is expected to increase across the region. The greatest change is projected in northwest Wisconsin and northern Minnesota where the frequency of very hot days may increase by 13 days.

Temperature is closely tied to drought. High temperatures causes stress on plants, animals, and people.
PROJECTED CHANGE IN FREQUENCY OF VERY COLD DAYS

Winter is expected to be warmer by mid-century with the frequency of very cold days (below 0° F) decreasing throughout the Ceded Territory. The greatest decrease is projected to occur in northern Wisconsin and northern Minnesota where the frequency of very cold days is expected to decrease by 9 to 11 days.

Cold days are needed for many cultural activities including maple syrup production, ice fishing, snowmobiling, and skiing. The change in the frequency of cold days is projected to be less of an impact in the eastern section of the Ceded Territory.
United States
How could these changes in climate impact the sustainability of manoomin?

Climate Variables Affecting the Sustainability of Manoomin
(these trends are based on the A1B Scenario)

Changing Great Lake Levels

Changing Great Lake Levels
Lake Superior’s water level is expected to fall 0.8-1.4 feet by 2100. Warmer temperatures, combined with reduced ice cover over this large water body, will allow greater amounts of water to evaporate from Lake Superior throughout the year. This water loss is expected to eventually exceed any increases in precipitation that may occur. What is the potential impact of these changes on manoomin?

CLUE: Changing lake levels is a balancing act between temperature and precipitation. Higher temperatures cause a greater loss of water from the lake through evaporation and what is taken up by plants and released into the atmosphere. If that loss is greater than the input of water into the lake from precipitation (both rain and snow) and groundwater recharge—lake levels will drop.

Because they are smaller and contain less water, water level fluctuations on inland lakes can be even more dramatic.

Manoomin is sensitive to fluctuations in the water level where it grows. Too little water and the plant will dry out, too much and it will drown, especially when the plant is in the critical “floating leaf” stage of growth.
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Temperature

Temperature
Wisconsin is projected to warm by 5°F by the middle of this century. Compare this for projected annual temperature change across the Ceded Territory. What is the potential impact of these changes on manoomin?

CLUE: Manoomin is a northern hardy plant, located at the southern edge of its A geographical area where an animal normally lives range in the Great Lakes and northern Wisconsin. Warming temperatures, together with higher humidity, contribute to wild rice fungal diseases, higher populations of damaging insects, and reduced germination rates
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Heavy Rainfall Events

Heavy Rainfall Events

Usually heavy rainfall events of 2 or more inches of rain are recorded about 12 times per decade in Wisconsin.

 

By the mid-21st century, Wisconsin may receive 30% more of these extreme rainfall events per decade, and twice the number of 5-inch rainfall flooding events. What is the potential impact of these changes on manoomin?

CLUE: Intense storm events can damage manoomin by uprooting plants or drowning them. Intense rain also erodes soil into the lakes and streams which can smother manoomin in a layer of sediment or cloud the water reducing the plant’s ability to photosynthesize properly.


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Storms and Wind

Storms and Wind
This issue is closely linked with increased temperatures and rainfall. Higher temperatures lead to increased evaporation and changes in weather pattern. Extreme weather events are expected to increase. What is the potential impact of these changes on manoomin?

CLUE: Increased storm events would increase wave action and erosion in Lake Superior coastal wetland areas and damage manoomin habitat such as the Bad River- Kakagon Sloughs.
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Drought

Drought
By the 2060, the frequency of very hot 90-degree days in Wisconsin is expected to triple from from a statewide average of 9 to 26 days per year. What is the potential impact of these changes on manoomin?

CLUE: This issue is closely linked to temperature and rainfall amounts. While northern Wisconsin is expected to have more heavy rainfall events, little change in the total amount of summer rain is predicted, but temperatures will be much warmer.

The combination of temperature rise and precipitation decreases in northern Wisconsin would result in droughts that dry out in manoomin habitat in Great Lakes coastal wetlands and inland lakes. Drought also exposes wetland soils to colonization by invasive plants that can crowd out manoomin.
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Activity Guide

Develop Your Hypothesis!


Now that you’ve investigated this unit's Ojibwe Traditional Ecological Knowledge, place-based evidence, and Scientific Ecological Knowledge of climate trends affecting manoomin--what do you think?

Do culture and science agree that climate change is affecting manoomin?

Write down your hypothesis:  

If climate change is occurring, then how might it affect manoomin?
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Do The Research! How Has Wisconsin's Climate Changed?

Establish a “baseline” for your climate investigations. Open the Historic Trends and Future Projections Climate Change Maps using this link or from the website's Toolkit. Focus on maps showing "historic" climate trends. These are observed changes based that have already occurred and are recorded.

List four changes in Wisconsin’s climate from 1950-2024 that have already been recorded based on "historic" trends:

1.

2.

3.

4.

Do The Research: What Could Stress Out Manoomin in the Future?

Now open the Statistical Downscaling Tool. The tool allows you to investigate how temperature and precipitation climate variables could change under different climate change futures.

 

You can chose between three future scenarios. The A1B Scenario is similar to the RCP 4.5 scenario. It is a future where the use of fossil fuels and carbon emissions stays at about the same levels as today. The A1 scenario is a future with greater carbon emissions and more warming. The B1 scenario is a future with lower carbon emissions.

Analyze potential climate change impacts under each of these scenarios on the environmental variables that are critical to the sustainability of manoomin.

 1. How are each of these environmental variables projected to change climate change under each the climate future scenarios?

  • Temperature (annual and seasonal)
  • Precipitation (annual and seasonal)


2. Which climate change scenario offers the best opportunity for sustaining manoomin and why?

3. What scenario suggest for the greatest threat to the sustainability of manoomin, and why?
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BONUS QUESTIONS:
It's all connected...What impact could projected changes in climate have on the potential for invasive plant species to compete with mannomin? 

What impact could projected change in climate have on the potential for plant diseases that could threaten the health of manoomin?

Develop your own hypothesis.

Now that you’ve investigated place-based evidence of climate change impacts on manoomin and climate change trends using scientific research, what do you think? Do culture and science agree that climate change is affecting manoomin now? Will climate change be affecting manoomin in the future?

Write down your hypothesis… If climate change is occurring, then how might it affect manoomin? Write down your hypothesis.


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Test Your Hypothesis

Develop an experiment or investigation of your own to test your hypothesis. Consider what other factors or variables could be causing the results you are observing.

Here are some ideas of investigations you can conduct to test your hypothesis:

  • How are manoomin harvests changing as the climate changes?  Investigate the summary of off-reservation wild rice harvest regulations, maps & aerial photos of manoomin waters from the Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission.
  • Conduct or review an existing phenology study of how plant emergence and flowering times are changing. How could the changes you are observing in this phenology be applied to manoomin? Project Budburst is a great resource to get you started. Select a plant species you are interested in observing or choose a plants used by the Lake Superior Ojibwe and record your observations.

Does your research support your hypothesis?

Will current or future climate change impact the sustainability of manoomin?

List three pieces of evidence you’ve gathered that supports (or does not support) your hypothesis:

1.

2.

3.

If your research did not support your hypothesis, create a new hypothesis based on your observations and re-test it.

What is Your Conclusion?

What do these climatic changes suggest for the sustainability of manoomin and the Ojibwe cultural practice of wild ricing?

How could these same climate change trends affect your lifestyle and cultural practices you enjoy such as recreation, hobbies, foods, or customs?