<Ojibwe Lifeway: Fishing (“niibin”- summer)

INVESTIGATE THE SCIENCE

A warming climate means changes in fisheries in Wisconsin and the Ceded territories are lands transferred from tribes to the federal covernment by treaty. Ceded Territory of the Lake Superior Ojibwe, especially in sport fish like brook trout, walleye, northern pike, and musky. These fish species need either cold or coolwater habitats to survive.

Does a warmer climate mean more warm water species of game fish to replace cold and coolwater species in lakes and streams? Not necessarily, due to other habitat limitations on warmwater fish. Instead, fisheries biologists believe that as cold and coolwater species such as brook trout and walleye disappear from streams and inland lakes, they will be replaced by warmwater non-game fish such as minnows. The bottom line of climate change is a net loss of game fish.

Use the Climate Change Toolkit to investigate the science! Use the Investigate the Science Activity Guide to focus your explorations.

CLIMATE CHANGE TOOLKIT

Browse this toolkit to find maps showing historic and projected climate trends for key environment variables affecting the sustainability of cool and coldwater fish species. Choose the geographical area you are interested in investigating and explore the climate change maps and tools.
Wisconsin

Wisconsin’s Changing Climate

Wisconsin’s Changing Climate
Wisconsin’s Changing Climate

How Has Wisconsin's Climate Changed in the Past?

 

CLUE:

 

Temperature (map on left). From 1950-2024, the average annual temperature in Wisconsin warmed between  3-4°F.  Winter temperatures have risen most significantly. Summer and autumn temperatures in Wisconsin have changed the least.

 

Precipitation (map on right).  Precipitation patterns have also changed. Wisconsin has become wetter – average precipitation has increased 17 percent (about 5 inches) since 1950. Most of the increase has been concentrated in southern and western Wisconsin. With warming winter temperatures, more winter precipitation is expected to fall as rain, rather than snow.

 

Explore more historic Wisconsin annual and seasonal climate trends here.

 


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What’s the Future for Wisconsin’s Climate?

What’s the Future for Wisconsin’s Climate?
What’s the Future for Wisconsin’s Climate?

Projected change in Wisconsin's temperatures by mid-century (left map) and projected temperature change by 2090 (right map) under the A1B climate scenario. 

 

The Wisconsin "Statistical Downscaling Tool" allows you to investigate climate impacts under different possible climate futures called "scenarios." Explore how specific climate variables such as temperature and precipitation, are projected to change under different climate futures,  and for different seasons, and time periods.

 

A2 Scenario- This model is characterized by a future with intensive fossil fuel use and high carbon emissions, higher than today’s rate.

 

A1B Scenario- This model uses a middle level rate of fossil fuel use where future carbon emissions remain similar to what we are experiencing today. This scenario is similar to the RCP 4.5 scenario.

 

B1 Scenario- This model is characterized by a future with lower fossil fuel use and lower carbon emissions than today’s rates.

What do future projections of climate change suggest for Wisconsin’s environment, economies, and people?


CLUE:

 

Analyze potential climate change impacts under each of these scenarios on the key environmental variables and habitat conditions that are critical to the sustainability of plants, animals that support cultural and economic practices important to our communities.


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Ceded Territory of the lake superior ojibwe

INVESTIGATE CEDED TERRITORY CLIMATE CHANGE

The maps in this section were created by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).
Open this section of the Climate Change Toolkit to discover how climate may be changing within the Ceded territories are lands transferred from tribes to the federal covernment by treaty.Ceded Territory of the Lake Superior Ojibwe and Upper Great Lakes.

Investigate maps that show historic climate trends that have been already been documented. Discover how climate variables like temperature and precipitation are projected to change. All climate projection maps are based on the A1B scenario which projects a climate future where the rate of fossil fuel use and carbon emissions remain similar to what we are experiencing today.

By Treaty with the US government, the Ojibwe people retain rights to hunt, fish, and gather in the Ceded Territory. Sustainability of plant and animals are important to maintaining Treaty Rights and Ojibwe cultural practices.

How could climate change affect the sustainability of species that are essential to supporting Treaty Rights and Ojibwe cultural practices? How could these changes in climate affect the cultural practices you enjoy, or people and economies?

TIP: Tip on using NASA Climate Maps
Each NASA climate map uses a different range of variables and colors to show the range of change. Read each map legend carefully to understand the range of variables that each color represents.

NASA historic climate maps and climate project maps cover slightly different time periods than other maps in the toolkit. NASA maps are based on the A2 climate scenario which projects a moderate rate of C02 increase.

HISTORIC CHANGE IN ANNUAL MEAN DAILY TEMPERATURE

PROJECTED CHANGES IN MEAN ANNUAL TEMPERTURE AVERAGE (TAVG)

Average annual mean temperatures across the Ceded Territory are expected to increase between 3-4° F by 2045. Warming is expected throughout the region, but the greatest increase in northern Wisconsin and Minnesota.

Look at the seasonal maps. Across the region, the warming is expected across all seasons, but is projected to be most significant during summer, fall and winter seasons.

Warmer winters mean more precipitation falling as rain or ice rather than snow, and less ice cover on lakes.

How would warming temperatures affect the sustainability of species and cultural activities that depend on cool temperate summers and cold snowy winters?

HISTORIC CHANGE IN ANNUAL PRECIPITATION (1980-2010)

HISTORIC CHANGE IN ANNUAL PRECIPITATION

Recorded trends in precipitation (falling as rain and snow) varied greatly across the Ceded Territory. The northern and western parts of the region tended to be drier, with some counties experiencing a decrease of as much as 6.5-inches in annual precipitation during this period.

Other counties in the south and east received as much as 8- inches more annual precipitation over the same time. Increased precipitation can saturate soils leading to flooding.

Drought is closely tied to precipitation and temperature. Compare this map with the Historic Annual Temperature seasonal maps. Which areas experienced higher temperatures and lower precipitation leading to drought conditions?

CEDED TERRITORY CLIMATE CHANGE TIME TRAVELER

What’s the Ceded Territory’s Climate Future?
Climate Change Projections (1995-2045)

PROJECTED CHANGES IN MEAN ANNUAL TEMPERTURE AVERAGE (TAVG)

Average annual mean temperatures across the Ceded Territory are expected to increase between 3-4° F by 2045. Warming is expected throughout the region, but the greatest increase in northern Wisconsin and Minnesota.

Look at the seasonal maps. Across the region, the warming is expected across all seasons, but is projected to be most significant during summer, fall and winter seasons.

Warmer winters mean more precipitation falling as rain or ice rather than snow, and less ice cover on lakes.

How would warming temperatures affect the sustainability of species and cultural activities that depend on cool temperate summers and cold snowy winters?
PROJECTED CHANGE IN FREQUENCY OF VERY HOT DAYS

By 2045, the frequency of very hot days above 90° F is expected to increase across the region. The greatest change is projected in northwest Wisconsin and northern Minnesota where the frequency of very hot days may increase by 13 days.

Temperature is closely tied to drought. High temperatures causes stress on plants, animals, and people.
PROJECTED CHANGE IN FREQUENCY OF VERY COLD DAYS

Winter is expected to be warmer by mid-century with the frequency of very cold days (below 0° F) decreasing throughout the Ceded Territory. The greatest decrease is projected to occur in northern Wisconsin and northern Minnesota where the frequency of very cold days is expected to decrease by 9 to 11 days.

Cold days are needed for many cultural activities including maple syrup production, ice fishing, snowmobiling, and skiing. The change in the frequency of cold days is projected to be less of an impact in the eastern section of the Ceded Territory.
United States
How could these changes in climate impact the sustainability of cool and coldwater fish species?

Climate Variables Affecting the Sustainability of Cold and Coolwater Fish
(these trends are based on the A1B Scenario)

Temperature

Temperature

This map shows that average annual summer temperatures are projected to increase +4 °F  by mid-century. What is the potential impact of these changes on cold and cool water fish species?

CLUE:

 

Increases in temperature mean more than just warmer weather. As air temperature rises, so does the water temperature of water in rivers, lakes, and streams. Cold and cool water fish species are sensitive to water temperatures. Climate models showing a +5ºF increase in annual and summer temperature would mean that up to 95% of suitable cold water brook trout habitat would be lost.

Rising temperatures also signals an increase in the potential for fish diseases. Warmer water temperatures provide conditions favorable for toxic algae blooms.


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Reduced Snow and Ice Cover

Reduced Snow and Ice Cover

Winter precipitation is expected to increase by 25% by 2050, with more falling as freezing rain due to increased winter temperatures. What is the potential impact of these changes on cold and coolwater fish species?

CLUE:

 

Longer periods of warmer winter weather, either due to early spring warm-up or warmer late falls, would mean less ice cover. Less ice cover mean more water loss from The process where water becomes vapor and enters the atmosphere evaporation from lakes, even in the winter time when temperatures are cold. Water levels of lakes, especially shallow lakes could be affected. Less ice cover could reduce winter fish kills because plants and algae could receive enough sunlight to live and produce oxygen, rather than dying and removing oxygen as they decay. That would be a good thing because it could help fish survive.

In deeper lakes , In winter and summer water stratifies like a layer cake with the coldest water on the bottom with warmer water layers on top. The most oxygen rich water is in the top layers. These layers mix every spring and fall when water temperatures equalize. This is called “turnover” and it is critical to mixing oxygen throughout the lake. Longer periods of warm weather would mean a longer time that water layers are separated leading to oxygen depletion in deeper parts of the lake. Cold and coolwater fish living in the lower zones would not be able to find the oxygen they need to survive.

Ice cover can also affect fish spawning. Walleye research has found that there was a significant positive relationship between the start of walleye spawning and when the ice leaves a lake. If the ice goes out too soon causing unusually early spawning, food sources needed by the larval baby walleye may not be available.


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Changing Lake Levels

Changing Lake Levels

Compare how the number of nights below 32 °F is projected to change from what was recorded between 1991-2020 and what is projected to occur by mid-century. Wisconsin's warming is projected to be greatest in winter, with temperature increases of 5°F by the mid-21st century. What is the potential impact of these changes on cold and cool water fish species?

CLUE:

 

Lake levels can go up and down depending on precipitation and The process where water becomes vapor and enters the atmosphere evaporation. Higher air temperatures means less ice cover. Even in winter, this can  The process where water becomes vapor and enters the atmosphere evaporation of water from lakes and lower lake levels.  Low lake levels can seriously impact fish spawning areas and spawning success rates. For those who like to ice fish, warmer winter temperatures can affect your safety on the ice, too!


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Flooding

Flooding

By the mid-21st century, Wisconsin may receive a 30% increase in these extreme flooding events per decade. What is the potential impact of these changes on cold and cool water fish species?

CLUE:

 

Intense storm events and flooding can impact fish by washing away spawning areas or covering them with silt and sediment. In some cases, flooding can create temporary fish habitat as higher water levels create new habitat.


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Drought

Drought

Compare the change in number of days above 90-degrees that occurred between 1991-2020, and what is projected by mid-century.  What is the potential impact of these changes on cold and cool water fish species?

CLUE:

 

Drought is closely linked to temperature and rainfall amounts. While northern Wisconsin is expected to have more heavy rainfall events, little change in the total amount of summer rain is predicted, but temperatures will be much warmer. Drought conditions can have extreme impacts on cold and cool water fish species by warming water, decreasing the amount of water entering lakes and streams, and lowering water levels from key habitat and spawning areas.


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Activity Guide

Develop Your Hypothesis!

Now that you’ve investigated this unit's Ojibwe Traditional Ecological Knowledge, place-based evidence, and Scientific Ecological Knowledge of climate trends affecting cold and cool water fish beings--what do you think?

 

Do culture and science agree that climate change is affecting fish beings now?

Write down your hypothesis:  

If climate change is occurring, then how might it affect cold and cool water fish beings?
____________________________________________
_____________________________________________

 

Do The Research: What’s Fishy About Climate Change?

Establish a “baseline” for your climate investigations. Open the Historic Trends and Future Projections Climate Change Maps using this link or from the website's Toolkit. Focus on maps showing "historic" climate trends. These are observed changes based that have already occurred and are recorded.

List four changes in Wisconsin’s climate from 1950-2024 that have already been recorded based on "historic" trends:

1.

2.

3.

4.

BONUS:  Many aquatic invasive plants and animals are capable of surviving in a wide range of habitat conditions. How could a warming climate affect the spread of invasive species that compete with Wisconsin's native cold and cool water fish species? 

Be a Climate Change Time Traveler

Now open the Statistical Downscaling Tool. The tool allows you to investigate how these environmental climate variables could change under different climate change futures.

 

You can chose between three future scenarios. The A1B Scenario is similar to the RCP 4.5 scenario. It is a future where the use of fossil fuels and carbon emissions stays at about the same levels as today. The A1 scenario is a future with greater carbon emissions and more warming. The B1 scenario is a future with lower carbon emissions.

 

Analyze potential climate change impacts under each of these scenarios on the environmental variables that are critical to the sustainability of sugar maple and paper birch.


1. How are each of these environmental variables projected to change climate change under each the climate future scenarios?

  • Temperature (average and seasonal)
  • Precipitation


2. Which climate change scenario offers the best opportunity for sustaining cold and cool water fish beings and why?

 

3. What scenario suggests for the greatest threats for the sustainability of cold and cool water fish beings, and why?

 


Develop your own hypothesis

Now that you’ve investigated place-based evidence of climate change impacts and scientific research on climate trends affecting cold and coolwater fish--what do you think? Do culture and science agree that climate change is affecting these fish species now? How will climate change affect fish like the brook trout, walleye, northern pike, and musky in the future?

Write down your hypothesis… If climate change is occurring, then how might it affect cold to coolwater fish? Write your hypothesis here:

_____________________________________________

_____________________________________________

Test Your Hypothesis and Gather More Information

Develop an experiment or investigation of your own to test your hypothesis. Consider what other factors or variables could be causing the results you are observing.

Here are some ideas of investigations you can conduct to test your hypothesis:

Does your research support your hypothesis?

Will current or future climate change impact the sustainability of cold and coolwater fish species?

List three pieces of evidence you’ve gathered that supports (or does not support) your hypothesis:

1.

2.

3.

If your research did not support your hypothesis, create a new hypothesis based on your observations and re-test it.

What is Your Conclusion?

What does this climate change evidence suggest for the sustainability of cold and coolwater fish species like brook trout, walleye, northern pike, and musky?

How could these changes affect the Ojibwe cultural practice of fishing and their treaty rights to harvest fish?

How could these same climate change trends affect your lifestyle and cultural practices you enjoy such as fishing, or other recreational activities, hobbies, foods, or customs?