<HEAR THE WATER SPEAK: NIBI

INVESTIGATE THE SCIENCE

As both an amplifier of global warming and a habitat, water is affected by climate change. Warming temperatures influence the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere which in turn warms temperatures.  

Climate change means changes for water resources and aquatic habitats. Warming is affecting the global water cycle and these changes are percolating through our local watersheds . Snowpacks are shrinking and stream temperatures will likely increase. Precipitation patterns may change. Floods, droughts, and severe weather disturbances may become more common. 

Now that you have learned about the importance of water to the Lake Superior Ojibwe people and explored place-based evidence of how climate change is affecting cultural and economic practices that rely on water, it is time investigate what scientific research is telling us about how the climate is changing.  Do culture and science agree that climate change is affecting water?  

How could climate change impacts on water affect cultural, environmental, and economic practices you enjoy?  Use the Climate Change Toolkit to investigate the science! Use the Investigate the Science Activity Guide to focus your explorations.

CLIMATE CHANGE TOOLKIT

Browse this toolkit to find maps showing historic and projected climate trends for key environment variables that will affect water resources. Choose the geographical area you are interested in investigating and explore the climate change maps and tools.
Wisconsin

Wisconsin’s Changing Climate!

Wisconsin’s Changing Climate!
Wisconsin’s Changing Climate!

How has Wisconsin’s climate changed in the past?

CLUE:

 

Temperature (map on left). From 1950-2024, the average annual temperature in Wisconsin warmed between  3-4°F.  Winter temperatures have risen most significantly. Summer and autumn temperatures in Wisconsin have changed the least.

 

Precipitation (map on right).  Precipitation patterns have also changed. Wisconsin has become wetter – average precipitation has increased 17 percent (about 5 inches) since 1950. Most of the increase has been concentrated in southern and western Wisconsin. With warming winter temperatures, more winter precipitation is expected to fall as rain, rather than snow.

 

Explore more historic Wisconsin climate trends and seasonal trends here





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What's the Future for Wisconsin's Climate?

What's the Future for Wisconsin's Climate?
What's the Future for Wisconsin's Climate?

Projected change in Wisconsin's temperatures by mid-century (left map) and projected temperature change by 2090 (right map) under the A1B climate scenario. 

 

The Wisconsin "Statistical Downscaling Tool" allows you to investigate climate impacts under different possible climate futures called "scenarios." Explore how specific climate variables such as temperature and precipitation, are projected to change under different climate futures,  and for different seasons, and time periods.


A2 Scenario- This model is characterized by a future with intensive fossil fuel use and high carbon emissions, higher than today’s rate.

 

A1B Scenario- This model uses a middle level rate of fossil fuel use where future carbon emissions remain similar to what we are experiencing today. This scenario is most similar to the RCP 4.5 scenario.

 

B1 Scenario- This model is characterized by a future with lower fossil fuel use and lower carbon emissions than today’s rates. 

 

Start by choosing a time period, a climate scenario, and a climate variable (temperature, precipitation, etc.), a specific variable (such as mean temperature), and the season. Toggle between different time period and scenarios to investigate possible climate futures!

 

How could future climate change affect Wisconsin’s environment, economies, and people?


CLUE: Analyze potential climate change impacts under each of these scenarios on the key environmental variables and habitat conditions that are critical to the sustainability of plants, animals that support cultural and economic practices important to our communities.



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Ceded Territory of the lake superior ojibwe

INVESTIGATE CEDED TERRITORY CLIMATE CHANGE

The maps in this section were created by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).
Open this section of the Climate Change Toolkit to discover how climate may be changing within the Ceded territories are lands transferred from tribes to the federal covernment by treaty.Ceded Territory of the Lake Superior Ojibwe and Upper Great Lakes.

Investigate maps that show historic climate trends that have been already been documented. Discover how climate variables like temperature and precipitation are projected to change. All climate projection maps are based on the A1B scenario which projects a climate future where the rate of fossil fuel use and carbon emissions remain similar to what we are experiencing today.

By Treaty with the US government, the Ojibwe people retain rights to hunt, fish, and gather in the Ceded Territory. Sustainability of plant and animals are important to maintaining Treaty Rights and Ojibwe cultural practices.

How could climate change affect the sustainability of species that are essential to supporting Treaty Rights and Ojibwe cultural practices? How could these changes in climate affect the cultural practices you enjoy, or people and economies?

TIP: Tip on using NASA Climate Maps
Each NASA climate map uses a different range of variables and colors to show the range of change. Read each map legend carefully to understand the range of variables that each color represents.

NASA historic climate maps and climate project maps cover slightly different time periods than other maps in the toolkit. NASA maps are based on the A2 climate scenario which projects a moderate rate of C02 increase.

HISTORIC CHANGE IN ANNUAL MEAN DAILY TEMPERATURE

PROJECTED CHANGES IN MEAN ANNUAL TEMPERTURE AVERAGE (TAVG)

Average annual mean temperatures across the Ceded Territory are expected to increase between 3-4° F by 2045. Warming is expected throughout the region, but the greatest increase in northern Wisconsin and Minnesota.

Look at the seasonal maps. Across the region, the warming is expected across all seasons, but is projected to be most significant during summer, fall and winter seasons.

Warmer winters mean more precipitation falling as rain or ice rather than snow, and less ice cover on lakes.

How would warming temperatures affect the sustainability of species and cultural activities that depend on cool temperate summers and cold snowy winters?

HISTORIC CHANGE IN ANNUAL PRECIPITATION (1980-2010)

HISTORIC CHANGE IN ANNUAL PRECIPITATION

Recorded trends in precipitation (falling as rain and snow) varied greatly across the Ceded Territory. The northern and western parts of the region tended to be drier, with some counties experiencing a decrease of as much as 6.5-inches in annual precipitation during this period.

Other counties in the south and east received as much as 8- inches more annual precipitation over the same time. Increased precipitation can saturate soils leading to flooding.

Drought is closely tied to precipitation and temperature. Compare this map with the Historic Annual Temperature seasonal maps. Which areas experienced higher temperatures and lower precipitation leading to drought conditions?

CEDED TERRITORY CLIMATE CHANGE TIME TRAVELER

What’s the Ceded Territory’s Climate Future?
Climate Change Projections (1995-2045)

PROJECTED CHANGES IN MEAN ANNUAL TEMPERTURE AVERAGE (TAVG)

Average annual mean temperatures across the Ceded Territory are expected to increase between 3-4° F by 2045. Warming is expected throughout the region, but the greatest increase in northern Wisconsin and Minnesota.

Look at the seasonal maps. Across the region, the warming is expected across all seasons, but is projected to be most significant during summer, fall and winter seasons.

Warmer winters mean more precipitation falling as rain or ice rather than snow, and less ice cover on lakes.

How would warming temperatures affect the sustainability of species and cultural activities that depend on cool temperate summers and cold snowy winters?
PROJECTED CHANGE IN FREQUENCY OF VERY HOT DAYS

By 2045, the frequency of very hot days above 90° F is expected to increase across the region. The greatest change is projected in northwest Wisconsin and northern Minnesota where the frequency of very hot days may increase by 13 days.

Temperature is closely tied to drought. High temperatures causes stress on plants, animals, and people.
PROJECTED CHANGE IN FREQUENCY OF VERY COLD DAYS

Winter is expected to be warmer by mid-century with the frequency of very cold days (below 0° F) decreasing throughout the Ceded Territory. The greatest decrease is projected to occur in northern Wisconsin and northern Minnesota where the frequency of very cold days is expected to decrease by 9 to 11 days.

Cold days are needed for many cultural activities including maple syrup production, ice fishing, snowmobiling, and skiing. The change in the frequency of cold days is projected to be less of an impact in the eastern section of the Ceded Territory.
United States

Climate Variables Affecting Water
(these trends are based on the A1B Scenario)

Temperature

Temperature
Overall, Wisconsin is projected to warm by +4°F by the middle of this century.  What is the potential impact of these changes on water resources?  

CLUE: Greater evaporation
A warmer climate means that there is more evaporation of water from both the land and waterbodies into the atmosphere.  

Greater evaporation mean some areas will experience drought, while other deal with extreme precipitation. Warmer temperatures evaporate water from lakes and streams affecting aquatic habitats and community water reservoirs. 

Warmer surface waters:
Warmer air temperatures means warmer lakes and rivers. This will affect the types of fish and plant species that can survive. Brook Trout, walleye and other cold to cool water loving fish species may be replaced by bass and carp that can survive in warmer water.  Warmer water can favor invasive species that tolerate higher temperatures, giving them a competitive edge over native plants and fish that cannot adapt. Toxic organisms, like blue-green algae, thrive in warmer water.
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Intense Rainfall & Storm Events

Intense Rainfall & Storm Events
Intense Rainfall & Storm Events
Compare the change in 2-inch rainfall events recorded in Wisconsin from 1950-2018 to what is projected by mid-century.  Usually heavy rainfall events of 2 or more inches of rain were recorded about 12 times per decade in Wisconsin. By the mid-21st century, Wisconsin is projected to see a 30% increase in 2 inch extreme rainfall flooding events per decade.  What is the potential impact of these changes on water resources? 

CLUE: Increase in Intense Rainfall Events. 
A warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor. A warm atmosphere “juiced up” with water vapor can lead to more intense rainstorms, causing major problems like extreme flooding.  Rainfall during intense storms tends to “run off” the land, rather than soaking in and providing soil moisture to plants.

High volumes of stormwater can flood communities, damage infrastructure like roads, and overwhelm sewage treatment facilities. Storms can disrupt electrical power and comprise community safety.  In coastal areas, storm events cause erosion from intense runoff and high wave action that damage fish and wildlife habitat.

While most of Wisconsin is projected to have an increase in extreme “gusher” rainfall events, Wisconsin’s Lake Superior region is one area expected to have the greatest increase. 


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WARMER WINERS-CHANGING PRECIPITATION

WARMER WINERS-CHANGING PRECIPITATION
WARMER WINERS-CHANGING PRECIPITATION

Wintertime precipitation is projected to increase by 10% by the mid-21st century while winter temperatures are projected to increase by +5-degrees F. What is the potential impact to Wisconsin's waters?

 
CLUE: The projected change in winter precipitation may not seem significant, but pair this map showing projected change in winter temperatures.  What do these projections suggest?

Less Snow, More Rain
Warmer atmosphere means that water vapor that would have fallen as snow during winter months may precipitate as rain.  Climate projections suggest that Wisconsin’s warming will be statewide and the greatest increases during the winter months.

When temperatures are above freezing (32°F), precipitation falls as rain. This means that while more precipitation expected in winter, but it will come as rain or a wintery mix, rather than as snow. Snowfall, snow depth, and the extent of snow across the state are expected to decrease.

What does this mean for communities that rely on winter recreation or winter logging businesses that requires frozen roads for jobs and income?  Snow also provides important habitat can affect the sustainability of plants and animals that rely on snow, such as the American Marten. Warmer winter temperatures mean less ice cover on lakes. This increases winter evaporation and can lower lake levels and affect fish spawning areas. Snow is both a source of moisture and a thermal insulator protecting plant’s root systems during winter months.


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Fewer Nights Below Freezing

Fewer Nights Below Freezing

Compare the change in nights below 32-degrees that have historically occurred and what are projected by mid-century. While winter precipitation is expected to increase, warming winter temperatures can cause precipitation to fall as freezing rain rather than snow.  Climate projections indicate that snow cover will drop by about 40% in northern Wisconsin over the next 50 years. How could these changes affect cultural and economic practices? 

 

CLUE:  
Wildlife
Less snow cover can affect the sustainability of wildlife. Some beings, like the American marten and Wabooz the Snowshoe hare, rely on deep snow cover for habitat and or camouflage. Other beings, like the Whitetail deer, benefit from winters that are less severe meaning more deer will survive. How could these changes affect cultural, economic, and recreational practices?

 

Winter Recreation

Warmer winters mean more snow will fall rain, rather than snow. How could this impact winter recreational activities like downhill skiing, snowmobiling, and ice fishing and the business that rely on these activities?

 

Lakes and Rivers

Evaporation from lakes and rivers occurs even in the winter. Warmer temperatures means more winter evaporation and lower lake levels. Will there be enough winter precipitation to make up for these losses?


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Drought

Drought

By the 2060, the frequency of very hot 90-degree days in Wisconsin is expected to triple from from a statewide average of 9 to 26 days per year   What is the potential impact of these changes on our water?

CLUE: Increases in the length and severity of very hot temperatures can cause drought conditions that affect the amount of water needed by plants, animals, and people. Lack of water also increases the risk for wildfire. Drought is closely linked to temperature and rainfall amounts. While Wisconsin is expected to have more heavy rainfall events, climate models suggest more frequent, localized periods of extreme drought will also occur.


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Activity Guide

Is Wisconsin’s Climate Changing?

Establish a “baseline” for your climate investigations. Open the Historic Trends and Future Projections Climate Change Maps. Analyze the general climate change trends scientists have documented for Wisconsin from 1950 to 2018. These are called “observed” changes because they are based on actual records or observations.

How has Wisconsin's climate changed? List 3 historic trends (such a changes in annual temperature, seasonal temperatures, precipitation) and list the time period over which these changes occurred. 


1.

2.

3.


What Could Affect Water Resources in the Future?

What Could Affect Water Resources in the Future?

Use the Climate Toolkit mapping tools to evaluate how different climate variables may change in the future and how these changes could affect water resources. These are called “projected” changes because they are based on scientific climate models.

Select a geographical area to investigate future climate change. You can choose from Wisconsin, the Ceded Territory, or another state. Write down the area you have selected: 

____________________________________________________________________

If you are investigating Wisconsin climate change, select this Toolkit option and open the Wisconsin Historic Trends and Future Projections mapping tool. Browse the "future projections" maps to see how different climate variables are projected to change by mid-century. These projections are based on the RCP 4.5 climate scenario. This scenario assumes that in the future the world's use of fossil fuels and carbon emissions will stay about the same as today.

If you are investigating climate change in the Ceded Territory, select that Toolkit option. Browse the Ceded Territory Future Projection.  Note: Ceded Territory maps project future changes in climate during a 50-year time period from 1995-2045. These maps are based on the “A2” climate change scenario. This scenario projects a future where the world's use of fossil fuels and carbon emissions increases.

 
If you are investigating climate change in state that is located outside of the Ojibwe Ceded Territory, select the United States toolkit option. Maps provided show historic temperature change, but not projected changes. Research that state to find out if projected climate change data is available.

Use the table below to record how each of the key environmental variables that affect water resources are projected to change.


                                               Projected                           Impacts to
                                             climate trend                     Water Resources

Temperature

Precipitation

Humidity

Changing Water
Levels

Storms & Wind

Be a Climate Change Time Traveler!

Be a Climate Change Time Traveler!
Open the Wisconsin Statistical Downscaling Tool  to compare and contrast what might happen to Wisconsin’s climate under three different climate futures based on the A2, the A1B, and the B2 Scenarios, over two different time periods, and seasons. These are called “projected changes” because they are based on climate models. The Mapping Tool also includes “observed” climate changes based on climate trends that have been documented between 1950-2006 to provide baseline information on climate changes that have already occurred.

Analyze potential climate change impacts under each of these scenarios on the environmental variable that are critical to the sustainability of cold and coolwater fish species. How are these variables projected to change under each scenario and each time period? How do these changes compare to “observed historic trends” in climate change that occurred from 1950-2006?

  • Which climate scenario would have the greatest negative impact on water resources and why?
  • What climate change scenario offers the best outcome for maintaining the quality and quantity of water resources and why?
  • What do these models suggest for aquatic habitats and watersheds in the future?

Develop your own hypothesis

Now that you’ve investigated place-based evidence of climate change impacts on water and climate change trends using scientific research, what do you think? Do culture and science agree that climate change is affecting water resources now? Will climate change be affecting water in the future? 

Write down your hypothesis… If climate change is occurring, then how might it affect water? Write down your hypothesis.

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Test IT!

Test IT!
Develop an experiment or investigation of your own to test your hypothesis. Consider what other factors or variables could be causing the results you are observing. 

Here are some ideas of investigations you can conduct to test your hypothesis:


  • Manipulate climate change data by decade using the Wisconsin Statistical Downscaling Tool to compare and contrast the impact of different climate variables on water resources have occurred and are projected to happen. When and where in Wisconsin have the greatest changes occurred? Where are the greatest changes projected to happen? Now focus on where you live. How has the temperature changed in the past? How do you think these changes affected water resources and aquatic habitats? What are the projected changes in temperature in the future?  How might these changes affect your watershed and your community?
  • Be a detective and create a profile describing your watershed, or your favorite river or lake, using the descriptor layers in the Wisconsin Surface Water Viewer. Add any personal reflections or observations about what you are currently happening there. Reflect on how the projected changes in climate change variables might affect the watershed or waterbody and why.
  • Watch:  A Day Without Water. Do you agree that projected changes in climate change may affect your community’s water supply. What can you do to prepare and protect your water?
  • Explore the link between climate change, water, and health. What do projected changes climate variables suggest for the health of your community?
  • Dive into the future of water and climate using the CREAT Climate Mapper.
  • More extreme weather? Explore the Extreme Weather Toolkit interactive maps showing extreme rainfall, thunderstorm, and tornado events in the US and by state. How can these conditions affect our water resources and public safety?

Does your research support your hypothesis?

Will current or future climate change impact the health of water resources?

List three pieces of evidence you’ve gathered that supports (or does not support) your hypothesis: 

1.

2.

3.

If your research did not support your hypothesis, create a new hypothesis based on your observations and re-test it.

What is Your Conclusion?

What do these climatic changes suggest for “Nibi”, aquatic habitats, and watershed resources?  

How could these same climate change trends affect your lifestyle and cultural practices you enjoy such as recreation, hobbies, foods, or customs?